On Saturday a new Selzer & Associates poll on behalf of the Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics confirmed what almost every pollster has been saying for months: We have a close race in Iowa for U.S. Senate. Selzer’s new numbers give Republican Joni Ernst a 47-46 lead over Democrat Bruce Braley. Ernst is marginally more popular, posting a 47-44 favorable rating to Braley’s 44-43.
Selzer’s last poll from two weeks ago gave Ernst a 44-38 lead, and raised more than a few eyebrows. Selzer is a very respected pollster and they have a very good, albeit small, record for accuracy. While a 1-point deficit shouldn’t have Democrats jumping for joy, it at least confirms that Ernst isn’t running away with this contest.
It’s hard to believe that Braley surged 5 points in the space of a week, especially since almost every other pollster has shown a tight race for months. What’s much more likely is that the first poll was simply off and Ernst was never up 6. That’s not necessarily Selzer’s fault. Outliers do happen even when a pollster does everything right. It’s also plausible that this swing is just due to movement within the margin of error.
All of this is a good reminder that we should never let a single poll define our perception of a race, even if it comes from a very respected pollster. If one survey gives us surprising numbers, the best thing to do is to wait for conformation from more pollsters. In this case, most other groups (with the exception of the conservative pollster Magellan and the ridiculous pollster Gravis) still showed a tight race and Selzer soon joined them. Waiting for new information can be frustrating, but it’s better than jumping to the wrong conclusions based off of just one poll.
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