Ah, those darned dishonest Republicans. There they go again, being all about that repeal thing, that thing they just know is never going to happen.
Republicans may be split on many issues, but they remain fiercely united in their loathing for the Affordable Care Act; they still see it as a terrible law, and they want it to go away. But GOP staffers and health care wonks also know that, even if they win the Senate, they’re not going to accomplish that in the next two years while President Barack Obama is still in office.
And after that? Well, think of the last time a major social program was repealed after three enrollment seasons, with millions of people getting benefits. That’s right—it hasn’t happened.
Just don’t expect a “reckoning” with the voters, where Republicans tell voters they can’t get rid of it—not as long as vows to repeal rile up campaign crowds and serve as fundraising catnip. Instead, the talk will slowly turn to what pieces of the law Republicans might be able to knock out in the next two years, followed by a full airing of plans in the 2016 presidential race that will shift the conversation to “replacing” as much of the law as possible, according to interviews with a dozen GOP strategists, staffers and health care analysts.
And here we get back to that little problem they’ve got of having absolutely nothing to replace it with. Because there isn’t anything that does all those things that Republicans grudgingly admit they’ll keep—because they’re popular!—that isn’t Obamacare. No more pre-existing conditions? You can’t get insurance companies to swallow that without the mandate. Same premium rates for women as men? Same thing. Allowing young adults to stay on their parents’ plans? Yep, that’s because of Obamacare and how it’s structured. Short of single-payer or Medicare for everyone—and you know Republicans won’t be doing that—there isn’t another plan that will cover as many people as Obamacare.
But they promised repeal to their crazy base, and if they want the crazy base to show up at the polls in three weeks, they have to keep saying it. Even when it’s as nonsensical as Mitch McConnell’s Kynect bullshit. They’re just hedging their bets that they can eke out another win like 2010 on Obamacare, without their base noticing that they’ve completely failed to keep their promise.
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Here’s the thing, though. If they win the Senate this time around, it will breathe new life into repeal—even though it will still be impossible to pull off. It’ll be repeal all the time in both the House and the Senate. Then we’ll really see what a do-nothing Congress looks like. And it will be nothing but repeal for 2016. Because they have literally nothing else.
