Leading Off:
• ID-Gov: Republican Gov. Butch Otter has never been particularly popular even in dark red Idaho, but it was still a surprise when the Republican Governor’s Association committed six figures to his re-election at the beginning of October. It was hard to believe that the RGA would spend so much so late in the cycle unless they were worried about Otter’s future, and a new Public Policy Polling survey confirms that this contest is a lot more interesting than anyone had a reason to think.
PPP finds Otter leading wealthy conservative Democrat A.J. Balukoff only 39-36, with four independent candidates taking a combined 12 percent, including 3 percent for the famous perennial candidate who legally changed his name to “Pro-Life.” Otter appears to have worn out his welcome with his constituents, and he sports an underwater 36-49 job approval rating. By contrast Balukoff, who has been freely spending his own money, has a 38-32 favorability score.
There have been very few other polls out of the Gem State, but there’s another good reason to believe that PPP and the RGA are seeing similar numbers. The RGA just went on the air with another ad, this one tying Balukoff to Obama as closely as possible. Balukoff was a Romney supporter in 2012 but of course that’s not stopping the RGA from linking him to the president, whom PPP of course finds is very unpopular here.
Democrats haven’t won a gubernatorial election in Idaho since Cecil Andrus’s landslide 1990 re-election victory, and Balukoff still has a remarkably uphill climb. When supporters of the third-party coterie are asked to pick between Otter and Balukoff, the governor’s overall lead legs out to 47-38. Independent candidates tend to lose support as the campaign heads toward Election Day, so Otter stands to benefit. And some late polls in 2006 found Democrat Jerry Brady looking very competitive against Otter, but the Republican still won 53-44, so he’s pulled out tough victories before.
Still, it’s clear that Otter does not have this race locked up yet. As a result, Daily Kos Elections is changing our race rating from Safe Republican to Likely Republican.
