The reason campaigns and committees send those out is apparently because they work. Email is heavily tested, with batches of competing messages sent to a small number of people, and whatever performs best gets sent to their broader list. It’s all scientific, so if you’re getting DOOOOM messages, it’s because they tested better than anything else they tried.
And yet, I still think those emails are bad. For one, they are dishonest. We are not doomed. What we have is a 50-50 election where base turnout will be the deciding factor. Another million for bullshit negative ads that everyone tune out won’t make a lick of difference. Making sure our voters do, will.
Look at our poll-based election outlook model—we have eight races where we’re losing, but the range is between a smidgeon and five points. Five points! That’s the difference between us losing the Senate and actually making gains. It’s that f’n close! Same with governorships, where we’re on track to gain at least three, but could gain as many as seven by moving the numbers less than five points. The real story isn’t DOOOOM, it’s “IT’S NECK AND NECK!”
But hey, maybe they tested that message and it generated 4.5 percent less money. So stick with what raises the most, right? Wrong.
I loved this diary by smileycreek, but this part worried me (despite the happy ending):
I spoke with a woman who sounded very weary. When I read her the three names she said, “the Democrat,” and then added mournfully, “Not that it ever does any good; it’s so red here the Republican always wins.” […]
When I asked if she would pledge to vote for Weiland she said, “I’ll try.” When I asked what time she would vote she said, “I’m a teacher, so it’ll be after school.” So I went back to talking about […] how Weiland had closed to within four points, and how the only way we could surprise those Republicans and win the race right out from under their noses was if every single Democrat decided this time will be different. I was getting pretty enthused, and she caught my energy […] She then strongly pledged to definitely get out and vote and to also talk to every Democrat she could about how important this race was.
She had gone from apathetic to engaged.
Then yesterday, I was a guest on Mark Thompson’s radio show on Sirius-XM, and had the following exchange with a caller from Georgia (paraphrasing):
[Caller] I’m sick of Republicans running television ads full of lies! I call their offices and complain!
[Me] That’s great! So what are you doing to help get out the vote?
[Caller] Nothing.
[Mark] Wait, did you say nothing? You’re not helping get out the vote?
[Caller] Nope. It’s depressing that we’re going to lose.
Five minutes later, after I listed the state of the polling, and how strong both Jason Carter and Michelle Nunn were running, she was fired up and ready to GOTV. But again, she had just assumed that it was hopeless—and she was someone engaged enough to listen to political radio and troll Republican campaign offices.
And that’s where I think that relentless flood of DOOOM emails is having a negative effect. Not only is it wrong, but you’re telling your base voters—those most likely to work hard at GOTV—that the elections is already lost! And given that 2014 is a base election, shouldn’t we be working hard to motivate people? Yes, we have a tough map, yes, we’re behind in some key races, and yes, we may lose! But if we do, it’s because people sat on the sidelines and didn’t engage. Telling them we’ve already lost the election doesn’t help any, no matter how many percentages more of money it raises.
